CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T21:34Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 841.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 502.263 Acceleration: 0.988545 Duration in seconds: 240367.34 Duration in days: 2.7820295 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.99 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 739.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 05/05/2024 Time: 21:34 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 26.73 hour(s)
Difference: -10.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-05-04T08:46Z
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